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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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