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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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