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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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