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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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