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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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