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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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