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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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