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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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