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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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