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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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