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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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