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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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