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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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