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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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