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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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