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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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