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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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