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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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