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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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