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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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