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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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