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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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