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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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