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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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