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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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