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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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