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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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