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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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