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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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