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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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