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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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