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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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