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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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