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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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