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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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