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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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