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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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