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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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