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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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