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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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