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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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