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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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