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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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