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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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