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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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