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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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