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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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