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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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