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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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