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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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