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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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