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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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