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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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