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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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