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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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