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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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