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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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